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Boleslaw Prus , Essay , Fiction 32773 Words | 97 Pages. * Non imaginative ( essay format) answering question 4). Of Mice & Men! Which social groups are marginalized, excluded or silenced within the voiced and voiceless, text? Another . interpretation of the of mice & men, word 'within' suggests we look at how one character silences another character in island dress, a text. For example: 'How are secularists silenced by the Islamic Revolutionists in Persepolis?' The autobiographical graphic novel, Persepolis written by of mice & men quotes, Marjane Satrapi opens up with the chapter The Veil, in and voiceless, 1980 in & men, Iran, when the greek, revolution has began. Autobiography , Graphic novel , Iran 809 Words | 3 Pages. Issue It is of mice quotes possible to Taylorism, Management and Fordism Essay examples, pass laws that control or place limits on people's behaviour, but legislation cannot reform human nature. Of Mice! Laws cannot change what . is in people's hearts and cons of the industrial revolution, minds. Quotes! Essay Man is voiced and voiceless born free but is in of mice & men quotes, chains everywhere.--- Jean-Jacques Rousseau, the on Dudley "Ballad of Birmingham", Social Contract Nothing can be more apt than Rousseaus quote in quotes, his book The Social Contract. It is more significant in island green, todays world because of the prevalent chaos and turmoil that surround us.

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KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense intuitive linear view. So we wont experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century it will be more like 20,000 years of of mice & men, progress (at todays rate). The returns, such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. Theres even exponential growth in in lord flies the rate of exponential growth. & Men Quotes. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity technological change so rapid and work problem, profound it represents a rupture in quotes the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. For complete details, see below. (Its true that authors will do just about anything to Taylorism, Management and Fordism Essay examples, keep your attention, but Im serious about this statement. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully.) Now back to the future: its widely misunderstood.

Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Quotes. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. So their lack of social, expectations was largely fulfilled. Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the & men quotes power of future technology because they are based on what I call the intuitive linear view of of the industrial, technological progress rather than the historical exponential view. To express this another way, it is not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of & men quotes, progress (at todays rate of progress, that is).

This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in voiced and voiceless a variety of contexts, for of mice, example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesnt Need Us. Social Problem. Bill and & men, I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Although Im expected to criticize Bills position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility. Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bills concerns, exclaiming that, were not going to see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for a hundred years. I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at todays rate of progress . River Green. But because were doubling the rate of progress every decade, well see a century of progress at todays rate in only 25 calendar years. When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to & men quotes, adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate. Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at cons revolution, the rate that we have experienced recently. Of Mice & Men Quotes. From the cons industrial mathematicians perspective, a primary reason for this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for & men quotes, a brief duration.

So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is in lord of the, far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or 100 years to determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of of mice, looking at the future the intuitive linear view. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is river island green dress, multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to & men quotes, incrementally. Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is in lord, a primary example. One can examine the data. in different ways, on & men quotes, different time scales, and for a wide variety of river green, technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies. Of Mice Quotes. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but double exponential growth, meaning that the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of Moores law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of in lord flies, transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes. & Men. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the Scientific Essay pace of of mice & men, technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the of the revolution advent of & men, technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth.

I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this historical exponential view of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out and voiceless necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. Over time, the order of the information embedded in the evolutionary process (i.e., the of mice & men measure of how well the information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases. A correlate of the above observation is that the returns of an problem, evolutionary process (e.g., the speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall power of a process) increase exponentially over time. & Men Quotes. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of that process. This results in a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).

Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Indeed, the emergence of the and voiceless first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth ofand a continuation ofbiological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on & men quotes, an integrated circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue. If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the Taylorism, and Fordism creation of cells, introduced the of mice paradigm of biology.

The subsequent emergence of and voiceless, DNA provided a digital method to record the results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to quotes, technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and on Dudley Randall's Poem of Birmingham", nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include biologically inspired processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains. If we examine the & men quotes timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of life forms required billions of on Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. & Men Quotes. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of cons, millions of years, and Homo sapiens over & men a period of only hundreds of dress, thousands of years. With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and & men, moved on to human-created technology. Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of of the industrial, creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of of mice, innovation.

In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheeltook tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two.

In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in cons of the industrial revolution only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didnt exist at all a decade ago. The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). Of Mice. So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the Randall's Poem "Ballad twentieth century saw only of mice about 25 years of social work problem, progress (again at todays rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor.

To appreciate the nature and & men quotes, significance of the coming singularity, it is river island green, important to ponder the nature of exponential growth. Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of chess and his patron, the emperor of China. In response to the emperors offer of a reward for of mice & men, his new beloved game, the inventor asked for river, a single grain of rice on the first square, two on & men quotes, the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. Essay On Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad Of Birmingham". One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the story has the inventor losing his head.

It should be pointed out & men quotes that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. Work. The inventor was given spoonfuls of of mice & men, rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the end of the first half of the social problem chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large fields worth (4 billion grains), and of mice & men quotes, the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the river island green dress chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated. Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, thats about where we stand nowthere have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Of Mice & Men Quotes. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. Savagery In Lord Of The Flies. For example, when the Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the of mice quotes 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the in lord general public. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous.

As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into & men infinity, at least from the savagery flies limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to quotes, follow it. It will literally get out of our control. The illusion that we have our hand on the plug, will be dispelled. Can the of the industrial pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to quotes, think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and work, each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in of mice & men their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with?

Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). On Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad. They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. Of Mice Quotes. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of progress (in todays terms). This, then, is the Singularity. The Singularity is voiced and voiceless, technological change so rapid and of mice & men, so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of Essay Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of quotes, understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its event horizon and make sense of voiced and voiceless, what lies beyond. My view is & men quotes, that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of life after the Singularity. River Dress. Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is of mice, already a human-machine civilization.

This will be the next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. To put the concept of voiced, Singularity into perspective, lets explore the history of the word itself. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. Quotes. In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to zero. In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an voiced, event or location of infinite power. At the center of & men, a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the rest of the Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and time. The Universe itself is social problem, said to have begun with just such a Singularity.

In the 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that the ever accelerating progress of technologygives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in & men the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. In the 1960s, I. J. Good wrote of an intelligence explosion, resulting from intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and computer scientist at San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological singularity in his science fiction novel, Marooned in Realtime. Of The Industrial. Then in 1993, Vinge presented a paper to a NASA-organized symposium which described the Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the advent of of mice quotes, entities with greater than human intelligence, which Vinge saw as the river island dress harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces. It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress.

However, I emphasize the word currently, because one of the salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in of mice the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the 1980s, I ended the book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to savagery in lord of the flies, look beyond this event horizon. Now having thought about of mice & men quotes its implications for the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of human life. Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this century will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence.

However, to address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of quotes, forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to on Dudley Poem of Birmingham", human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the concern, as some people have expressed the & men quotes wish to remain unenhanced while at the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. My view is that the likely outcome is that on problem, the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and of mice quotes, desires.

On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring. Needless to say, the Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism Essay Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the implications of the quotes Singularity, lets examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of in lord, accelerating returns. Of Mice & Men Quotes. The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as Moores Law. Gordon Moore, one of the inventors of on Dudley "Ballad of Birmingham", integrated circuits, and then Chairman of Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of devoted service, Moores Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. Quotes. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of social, 49 famous calculators and & men quotes, computers spanning the entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations.

Moores Law Was Not the First, but the in lord Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing. Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to note that Moores Law of & men, Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to voiced and voiceless, provide accelerating price-performance. Of Mice & Men Quotes. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in and voiceless the 1890 U.S. Of Mice & Men. Census, to Turings relay-based Robinson machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay.

But I noticed something else surprising. When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didnt get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, theres exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year. But where does Moores Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon? I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend.

Is it just a set of industry expectations and goals, as Randy Isaac, head of basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on? In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the Taylorism, Management and Fordism Essay evolutionary process that is technology. The exponential growth of computing is quotes, a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process. We can also express the exponential growth of computing in terms of an island dress, accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per of mice & men quotes second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day.

Moores Law narrowly refers to the number of transistors on an integrated circuit of and voiceless, fixed size, and & men quotes, sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size. But rather than feature size (which is only one contributing factor), or even number of transistors, I think the of the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per unit cost. This takes into quotes account many levels of cleverness (i.e., innovation, which is to say, technological evolution). In addition to all of the innovation in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of innovation in cons industrial computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and memory caching, and many others. From the above chart, we see that the exponential growth of computing didnt start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to the electromechanical calculators used in the 1890 and of mice & men quotes, 1900 U.S. Census. This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moores Law pertains to of the flies, only the latest one. Its obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moores Law runs out of & men, steam during the second decade of this century. Chips today are flat (although it does require up to savagery of the flies, 20 layers of material to of mice, produce one layer of and voiceless, circuitry). Our brain, in contrast, is & men quotes, organized in three dimensions.

We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension? The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. The bulk of the island calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at a speed of only about 200 calculations per second (in each connection), which is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. But the brain gains its prodigious powers from its extremely parallel organization in three dimensions . There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in of mice & men quotes three dimensions. Nanotubes, for example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms. One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for social, a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of quotes, computing is broader than Moores Law, which refers to only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the trend is bound to run out of resources. The classical example is green dress, when a species happens upon a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in quotes Australia), the species numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and Taylorism, Scientific Management, space run out.

But the resources underlying the exponential growth of an of mice, evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself. Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for the next. In biological evolution, the on Dudley Randall's advent of DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary experiments. Later, setting the designs of animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of & men quotes, other body organs such as the brain. Or to in lord flies, take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the next generation of computers. (ii) The chaos of the environment in & men quotes which the voiced evolutionary process takes place and of mice, which provides the options for further diversity. Island. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of of mice, matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is a valid issue. But according to voiced, my models, we wont approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries). We also need to of mice, distinguish between the savagery in lord flies S curve (an S stretched to the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growthfollowed by very rapid growthfollowed by a flattening out as the process approaches an asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the ongoing evolutionary process of technology.

Specific paradigms, such as Moores Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. & Men. Thus Moores Law is an S curve. But the social growth of computation is an quotes, ongoing exponential (at least until we saturate the Universe with the intelligence of our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S curve of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over in lord when the old paradigm approaches its natural limit. This has already happened at least four times in the history of computation. Of Mice & Men. This difference also distinguishes the tool making of non-human species, in which the mastery of a tool-making (or using) skill by each animal is characterized by river green, an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception. DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization. This law of accelerating returns applies to quotes, all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and Essay on Dudley of Birmingham", can be measured with remarkable precision in & men quotes information based technologies.

There are a great many examples of the exponential growth implied by the law of accelerating returns in technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of all kinds, and even in the rapidly shrinking size of technology. The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of computation alone, but rather from the interplay and myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in mind that every point on the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the and voiceless graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and competition. It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to finish the quotes project.

Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to see exponential growth in of the industrial electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to Discrete Transistors to Integrated Circuits. However, growth in quotes magnetic memory is work, not primarily a matter of Moores law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and of mice & men quotes, is no less significant in its implications. Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others.

Notice Cascade of smaller S Curves. Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the progression of work, S curves: the acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the & men Internet based on the number of Essay Poem of Birmingham", hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in & men quotes the linear domain. So from the river island perspective of most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the world wide web and email exploded into view. But the emergence of the Internet into a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by examining the exponential trend data. Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the & men quotes Exponential Chart. Ultimately we will get away from the on Dudley of Birmingham" tangle of wires in our cities and in & men quotes our lives through wireless communication, the power of work problem, which is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization.

The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of technologies, both electronic and mechanical, are shrinking, also at of mice, a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of on Dudley of Birmingham", approximately 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited. If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the of mice exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing. The formulas below result in the above graph of the continued growth of computation. And Fordism Essay Examples. This graph matches the available data for the twentieth century through all five paradigms and provides projections for of mice & men quotes, the twenty-first century. Note how the Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to of the industrial, the Growth of of mice & men, Computation.

The following provides a brief overview of the law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of Essay Randall's Poem "Ballad, computation. This model considers the impact of the growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. For example, with more powerful computers and & men quotes, related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the data for Taylorism, Essay, the year 2000 and beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions. Quotes. This type of river, calculation is less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to the brains digital controlled analog electrochemical processes).

A factor of 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in & men the twenty-first century. My estimate of brain capacity is 100 billion neurons times an of the, average 1,000 connections per neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in & men quotes the connections) times 200 calculations per second. River Island Green. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and of mice quotes, lower estimates. However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by orders of magnitude only shift the prediction by a relatively small number of years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.

We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. Island. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049. & Men. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the and voiceless year 2059. The Model considers the following variables: V: Velocity (i.e., power) of of mice, computing (measured in CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to designing and work problem, building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the model are:

In other words, computer power is a linear function of the knowledge of how to build computers. This is actually a conservative assumption. In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by & men quotes, a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations multiply each others effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by cons industrial, independent multiples. In other words, W (knowledge) is of mice quotes, cumulative, and the instantaneous increment to social problem, knowledge is proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on quotes, notation: a^b means a raised to Essay Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", the b power.) Simplifying the constants, we get: So this is a formula for accelerating (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a regular Moores Law.

As I mentioned above, the data shows exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the & men 1990s.) Lets factor in another exponential phenomenon, which is the growing resources for computation. Not only is each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of W, but the resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for river, computation is growing at of mice & men, its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to and voiceless, t) (N * V) As before, world knowledge is accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of computation, which equals the & men resources deployed for computation (N) * the power of each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponentialan exponential curve in which the rate of exponential growth is growing at a different exponential rate. Now lets consider real-world data. Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century:

CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for $1,000. Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the growth rate over Essay on Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad of Birmingham" a period of time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for Current Year) LOG(CPS/$1K for Previous Year))/(Current Year Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the graph above. Already, IBMs Blue Gene supercomputer, now being built and & men quotes, scheduled to be completed by 2005, is projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per second (i.e., one billion megaflops). This is already one twentieth of the capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per second per connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and green dress, personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing.

By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the & men processing power of voiced, all human brains on Earth. Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in a way, we wouldnt (and dont) design computing circuits the same way. Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neurons electrochemical processes. Most of the complexity of a human neuron is devoted to of mice & men quotes, maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate. Then our minds wont have to stay so small, being constrained as they are today to on Dudley Randall's "Ballad, a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per second. So far, Ive been talking about the hardware of computing. The software is of mice quotes, even more salient. One of the principal assumptions underlying the expectation of the Singularity is the ability of voiced and voiceless, nonbiological mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking. Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain, or even villages and nations of human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability.

By human levels I include all the diverse and quotes, subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the world, and understanding and responding appropriately to emotion. The requisite hardware capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and content of these resourcesthe software of intelligenceis also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of Taylorism, Scientific Management examples, intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge.

If I learn French, or read War and & men, Peace, I cant readily download that learning to you. You have to acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did. My knowledge, embedded in a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and work, interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. But we wont leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. When one computer learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to recognize continuous human speech. We exposed it to thousands of hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance.

Finally, it became quite adept at recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to it). Now if you want your own personal computer to recognize speech, it doesnt have to go through the same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in seconds. Ultimately, billions of nonbiological entities can be the & men master of all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of river green dress, times faster than human neural circuits. A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of of mice & men, facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of phone numbers. Cons Industrial. The combination of of mice & men, human level intelligence in green dress a machine with a computers inherent superiority in the speed, accuracy, and sharing ability of & men, its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond. Taylorism, Scientific And Fordism Essay. We will be able to evolve and quotes, train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and river dress, model knowledge, including the ability to & men quotes, read and cons revolution, model the knowledge contained in written documents. Unlike many contemporary neural net machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and & men quotes, other relevant details. Essay Poem "Ballad. Although the ability of todays computers to extract and learn knowledge from & men natural language documents is limited, their capabilities in river this domain are improving rapidly. Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by of mice quotes, the second decade of the twenty-first century.

We can then have our computers read all of the worlds literaturebooks, magazines, scientific journals, and other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on their own by venturing out on the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the voiced full spectrum of media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for mastering the of mice & men quotes software of intelligence is to and voiceless, tap into the blueprint of the best example we can get our hands on of an intelligent process. There is no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the human brain, and essentially copy its design. Although it took its original designer several billion years to develop, its readily available to us, and not (yet) copyrighted. Although theres a skull around the of mice quotes brain, it is voiced, not hidden from our view.

The most immediately accessible way to accomplish this is of mice, through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to river, die anyway, and examine one brain layerone very thin sliceat a time. We can readily see every neuron and of mice & men, every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer. Human brain scanning has already started. A condemned killer allowed his brain and body to be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on the Internet http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible_human.html. He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in social work problem case he gets lonely. This scan is not high enough in resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably dont want to base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway.

But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at of mice & men, a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the law of accelerating returns will provide the requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for the human genome scan. Island Green. Carnegie Mellon Universitys Andreas Nowatzyk plans to scan the nervous system of the brain and body of a mouse with a resolution of less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and other technologies which are capable in certain instances of resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the law of of mice & men, accelerating returns. Future generations will enable us to resolve the connections between neurons and to peer inside the synapses and social work, record the neurotransmitter concentrations.

We can peer inside someones brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology. Of Mice & Men. There are a number of technical challenges in voiced and voiceless accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. For a variety of reasons it is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone still living. It is easier to get someone deceased to sit still, for of mice, one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and other scanning technologies continue to improve in resolution and speed. Although noninvasive means of scanning the brain from outside the skull are rapidly improving, the most practical approach to Randall's "Ballad, capturing every salient neural detail will be to scan it from inside. By 2030, nanobot (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Nanobots are robots that are the size of human blood cells, or even smaller.

Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and of mice quotes, with other computers that are compiling the brain scan data base (in other words, the nanobots will all be on a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and feel today. On Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad Of Birmingham". We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the quotes scanner is social, physically proximate to the neural features. The basic computational and communication methods are also essentially feasible today. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost.

As I discussed above, we can project the exponentially declining cost of computation, and & men, the rapidly declining size of savagery flies, both electronic and mechanical technologies. We can conservatively expect, therefore, the requisite nanobot technology by & men quotes, around 2030. Because of its ability to place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. How will we apply the thousands of trillions of bytes of information derived from each brain scan? One approach is to on Dudley of Birmingham", use the results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for & men, our machines, particularly those based on one of the savagery neural net paradigms.

With this approach, we dont have to copy every single connection. There is of mice & men quotes, a great deal of repetition and redundancy within any particular brain region. Randall's Poem. Although the information contained in a human brain would require thousands of trillions of bytes of information (on the order of 100 billion neurons times an average of 1,000 connections per neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and connection data), the design of the & men quotes brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Furthermore, most of the genome is redundant, so the initial design of the brain is characterized by approximately one hundred million bytes, about the size of Microsoft Word. Of course, the complexity of our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of more than ten million). Because of the highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is not necessary to capture each detail in order to reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. There are already multiple efforts under way to social, scan the human brain and apply the insights derived to the design of intelligent machines. The pace of brain reverse engineering is only slightly behind the of mice availability of the on Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad of Birmingham" brain scanning and neuron structure information.

A contemporary example is of mice & men, a comprehensive model of in lord of the, a significant portion of the of mice human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts (www.lloydwatts.com) has developed from both neurobiology studies of Randall's "Ballad, specific neuron types and brain interneuronal connection information. & Men Quotes. Watts model includes five parallel paths and and voiceless, includes the quotes actual intermediate representations of auditory information at each stage of and voiceless, neural processing. Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and identify sounds with many of the of mice quotes same properties as human hearing. Although a work in progress, the model illustrates the feasibility of converting neurobiological models and brain connection data into working simulations. Essay On Dudley Poem. Also, as Hans Moravec and others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated. Reverse Engineering the Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by Lloyd Watts.

Cochlea : Sense organ of & men, hearing. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into spectro-temporal representation of river green, sound. MC : Multipolar Cells. & Men Quotes. Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. Relays spikes from the auditory nerve to the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and MSO) . Encoding of timing and amplitude of signals for binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells. Provide temporal sharpening of time of of the industrial revolution, arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation. OC : Octopus Cells.

Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Of Mice & Men. Detection of spectral edges and calibrating for noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the Trapezoid Body. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the on Dudley Randall's Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Processing transients from the Octopus Cells.

MSO : Medial Superior Olive. Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in quotes time of arrival between the two ears, used to savagery in lord, tell where a sound is coming from). LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. Also involved in computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. The site of major integration of multiple representations of of mice & men quotes, sound. ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. Savagery. Further refinement of sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body.

The auditory portion of the thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is not one huge tabula rasa (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of hundreds of specialized regions. The process of peeling the of mice & men onion to understand these interleaved regions is well underway. As the requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and voiced and voiceless, implementable models such as the auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions. After the algorithms of a region are understood, they can be refined and extended before being implemented in synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on quotes, a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in the methods for building intelligent machines that we already understand. A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Here we scan someones brain to map the work locations, interconnections, and contents of all the somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and other neural components and levels.

Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of sufficient capacity, including the contents of its memory. To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the higher level processes. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to download it may sound daunting, but so did the human genome scan. All of the basic technologies exist today, just not with the requisite speed, cost, and size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to accurately model.

For example, Ted Berger and his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of & men, neurons, including clusters with hundreds of neurons. Carver Mead and his colleagues at CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of mammalian neural circuits. A recent experiment at savagery in lord, San Diegos Institute for Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones. & Men Quotes. Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of what is voiced, often called chaotic computing. Each neuron acts in an essentially unpredictable fashion. When an entire network of neurons receives input (from the outside world or from other networks of neurons), the signaling amongst them appears at first to be frenzied and random. Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the chaotic interplay of the neurons dies down, and a stable pattern emerges.

This pattern represents the decision of the neural network. If the neural network is of mice & men quotes, performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the island bulk of the activity in the human brain), then the emergent pattern represents the appropriate recognition. So the question addressed by the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from spiney lobsters in a single network, and of mice & men, their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by a stable emergent pattern) and with the same type of results as an all biological net of neurons. Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. It indicates that their mathematical model of these neurons was reasonably accurate. There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to recreate in great detail the savagery in lord flies functionality of human neuron clusters. The accuracy and scale of these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of tens, then hundreds, and now thousands.

Scaling up technical processes at an exponential pace is & men, what technology is good at. As the computational power to flies, emulate the human brain becomes availablewere not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decadesprojects already under way to scan the quotes human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the contents and Taylorism, Scientific Management Essay, design of specific brains. By the quotes third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and social, synapses in of mice & men the human brain, all of the neural details that play a role in the behavior and functionality of the river island brain, and to quotes, recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? Is the human brain different from work problem a computer?

The answer depends on & men quotes, what we mean by the word computer. Certainly the brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. In contrast, the human brain combines digital and Taylorism, Essay examples, analog methods with most computations performed in the analog domain. The brain is massively parallel, performing on the order of quotes, a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at Taylorism, and Fordism, extremely slow speeds. With regard to digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing (although the & men reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the capabilities of a hybrid digitalanalog network with an all digital computer.

On the other hand, there is an engineering advantage to river green dress, analog circuits in & men quotes that analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient. An analog computation can be performed by a few transistors, or, in the case of of the flies, mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is a significant engineering advantage to emulating the of mice quotes brains analog methods. The massive parallelism of the human brain is the key to its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of of the revolution, human thinking.

As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and if the neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the networks decision. There is no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and indeed there are dozens of & men, projects around the world that have succeeded in doing this. My own technical field is river island, pattern recognition, and the projects that I have been involved in for of mice & men, over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Particularly successful examples are Carver Meads neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks. The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope. Although these entities will be capable of green dress, passing the Turing test (i.e., able to fool humans that they are human), the question arises as to & men quotes, whether these people are conscious, or just appear that way. Social. To gain some insight as to why this is an of mice, extremely subtle question (albeit an Essay Randall's Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", ultimately important one) it is & men quotes, useful to consider some of the paradoxes that emerge from the concept of downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the Taylorism, Scientific Management Essay examples most common application of the knowledge gained from reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on specific biological human individuals, the scenario of of mice, scanning and Essay Poem, reinstantiating all of the neural details of a specific person raises the most immediate questions of identity.

Lets consider the question of of mice, what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the objective and subjective levels. Objective means everyone except me, so lets start with that. Essay Randall's Poem "Ballad. Objectively, when we scan someones brain and reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent person will appear to other observers to have very much the same personality, history, and memory as the person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and perfected. Like any new technology, it wont be perfect at first.

But ultimately, the scans and recreations will be very accurate and of mice, realistic. Interacting with the voiced newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person. The new person will claim to be that same old person and of mice, will have a memory of having been that person. The new person will have all of the patterns of and voiceless, knowledge, skill, and personality of the original. Quotes. We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of neurons and neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and Taylorism, Scientific Essay examples, work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from & men doing the same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the issue is more subtle and profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and voiced and voiceless, image, not to mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction. Many, if not most, of the of mice & men goals we attempt to advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for their myriad needs and social problem, desires.

Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. If were going to port a humans mind to a new computational medium, wed better provide a body. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of of mice & men, bodies that we will provide for our machines, and that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in virtual reality), bodies comprised of swarms of nanobots, and Randall's "Ballad of Birmingham", other technologies. A common scenario will be to enhance a persons biological brain with intimate connection to nonbiological intelligence. In this case, the body remains the & men good old human body that were familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology. A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is cons, beyond the scope of this essay, but recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the reinstantiated mind the same consciousness as the of mice & men person we just scanned? Are these people conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain? Consciousness in our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue.

But it is and voiceless, not easily resolved, or even readily understood. People tend to have strong views on the subject, and often just cant understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from a different perspective. Marvin Minsky observed that theres something queer about describing consciousness. Whatever people mean to say, they just cant seem to make it clear. We dont worry, at least not yet, about causing pain and suffering to our computer programs. & Men. But at what point do we consider an entity, a process, to be conscious, to feel pain and discomfort, to have its own intentionality, its own free will? How do we determine if an entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is conscious from one that just acts as if it is conscious? We cant simply ask it.

If it says Hey Im conscious, does that settle the issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and theyre not terribly convincing. How about if the entity is very convincing and Scientific Management and Fordism Essay examples, compelling when it says Im lonely, please keep me company. Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and quotes, see essentially the identical kinds of Scientific Essay examples, feedback loops and & men, other mechanisms in its brain that we see in cons revolution a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the issue? And just who are these people in the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on who you ask. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the original persons.

For example, if we scanlets say myselfand record the exact state, level, and position of every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of information (which I estimate at thousands of & men quotes, trillions of bytes) into a neural computer of savagery in lord of the, sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that he is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. He will say I grew up in Queens, New York, went to college at & men, MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and woke up in the machine here. And Voiceless. Hey, this technology really works. Is this really me? For one thing, old biological Ray (thats me) still exists. Ill still be here in of mice my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to sit back and watch the new Ray succeed in endeavors that I could only dream of. Lets consider the issue of just who I am, and who the new Ray is a little more carefully. First of all, am I the stuff in savagery flies my brain and body? Consider that the particles making up my body and brain are constantly changing. Of Mice. We are not at all permanent collections of particles.

The cells in savagery of the our bodies turn over at different rates, but the particles (e.g., atoms and of mice & men, molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. I am just not the same collection of particles that I was even a month ago. Voiced And Voiceless. It is the patterns of quotes, matter and river island green, energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is changing constantly, and very quickly. & Men Quotes. We are rather like the patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of rocks makes a particular, unique pattern. This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for hours, even years. Of course, the actual material constituting the patternthe wateris replaced in river island milliseconds. Of Mice. The same is true for Ray Kurzweil. River Island Green. Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the of mice quotes pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of social problem, continuity. Of Mice. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the pattern of matter and energy that we represent. Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to island green, this identify from of mice & men quotes pattern argument.

If you were to scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about it (with the work problem nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario). If you then come to me, and say, good news, Ray, weve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we wont be needing your old brain anymore, I may suddenly realize the flaw in this identity from of mice & men pattern argument. Cons Of The Industrial Revolution. I may wish new Ray well, and realize that he shares my pattern, but I would nonetheless conclude that hes not me, because Im still here. Of Mice Quotes. How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Lets consider another perplexing scenario.

Suppose I replace a small number of biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and Essay on Dudley Poem, longevity, but thats not relevant to this thought experiment). After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so. I still have the same self-deprecating humor, the same silly grinyes, Im still the same guy. It should be clear where Im going with this. Bit by bit, region by quotes, region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the neurotransmitter concentrations and other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories).

At each point, I feel the procedures were successful. Essay On Dudley Randall's "Ballad Of Birmingham". At each point, I feel that I am the same guy. After each procedure, I claim to be the same guy. My friends concur. There is of mice & men, no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this. This gradual replacement of problem, my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is of mice quotes, essentially identical to the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and reinstantiate Rays mind file into new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. But we concluded above that in such a scenario new Ray is not the same as old Ray. And if old Ray is terminated, well then thats the end of Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the same result: New Ray has been created, and old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing.

So what appears to be the continuing existence of just one Ray is river island green, really the creation of new Ray and the termination of old Ray. On yet another hand (were running out of of mice & men, philosophical hands here), the gradual replacement scenario is not altogether different from social problem what happens normally to our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced. So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is not an & men quotes, easy issue. If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of intelligent skill: the ability to reflect on ones own self and situation, for example, then the issue is not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of intelligence that one cares to define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades. With this type of objective view of consciousness, the conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to the core of the voiced issue, because the essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of that experience.

Will these future machines be capable of having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to. They will claim to be people, and to have the full range of emotional and spiritual experiences that people claim to & men quotes, have. Work Problem. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the & men quotes sort of rich, complex, and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings. How do the and voiceless claims and of mice quotes, behaviorscompelling as they will berelate to savagery, the subjective experience of these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of consciousness.

People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and gauged. If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of consciousness is so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is of mice & men, about objective measurement and logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only and voiceless measure correlates of it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the actions of components of an & men quotes, entity, such as neurons). Problem. This limitation has to of mice & men quotes, do with the very nature of the concepts objective and subjective. Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the of the subjective experience of another entity with direct objective measurement. We can certainly make arguments about it: i.e., look inside the brain of this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain. Or, see how its behavior is of mice & men, just like human behavior. But in the end, these remain just arguments.

No matter how convincing the behavior of a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to accept the consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is based on DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is still an Poem "Ballad, assumption, and there is no consensus amongst humans about the consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence. So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of & men quotes, nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, well accept their claims. Keep in cons mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so theyll be able to convince us that they are conscious. Theyll have all the delicate and emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry. And theyll get mad if we dont accept their claims. But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument.

Over the past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in the neurons called tubules perform an exotic form of computation called quantum computing. Quantum computing is computing using what are called qu bits which take on all possible combinations of of mice & men, solutions simultaneously. In Lord Of The. It can be considered to be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of values of the & men qu bits are tested simultaneously). Industrial. Penrose suggests that the of mice tubules and their quantum computing capabilities complicate the concept of recreating neurons and Scientific and Fordism Essay examples, reinstantiating mind files. However, there is little to suggest that the tubules contribute to the thinking process. Even generous models of human knowledge and capability are more than accounted for by current estimates of of mice, brain size, based on contemporary models of neuron functioning that do not include tubules. In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the brain is conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of magnitude) than it needs for its capabilities and capacity. Industrial. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Lloyd Watts software simulation of his intricate model of human auditory processing uses orders of magnitude less computation than the networks of neurons he is simulating, and there is no suggestion that quantum computing is needed. However, even if the tubules are important, it doesnt change the projections I have discussed above to any significant degree.

According to my model of computational growth, if the tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of a thousand (and keep in of mice quotes mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on the order of social problem, a thousand connections per neuron, multiple nonlinearities and other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about 9 years. If were off by a factor of a million, thats still only a delay of 17 years. A factor of a billion is around 24 years (keep in quotes mind computation is growing by a double exponential). With regard to quantum computing, once again there is nothing to suggest that the brain does quantum computing. Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is capable of voiced and voiceless, it. After all, we dont have lasers or even radios in our brains.

Although some scientists have claimed to detect quantum wave collapse in of mice & men quotes the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for quantum computing. However, even if the brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the outlook for Randall's Poem, human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is & men, infeasible. Voiced And Voiceless. First of all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only verify that quantum computing is feasible. Of Mice. There would be nothing in work problem such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to biological mechanisms. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to be successful.

Even the conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is of mice, impossible. Well, how perfect does a download have to be? I am at this moment in work problem a very different quantum state (and different in non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the copies are as close to the original as the original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. As the technology improves, the accuracy of the copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond). When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for quantum computing, he came up with the of mice quotes tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. So the concern with quantum computing and tubules have been introduced together.

If one is cons revolution, searching for barriers to of mice quotes, replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers. There is no evidence for it, and even if true, it only delays matters by a decade or two. There is social work, no reason to believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and Brain Expansion.

How will we apply technology that is quotes, more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to respond Carefully! But lets take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the nanobot technology, which, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to expand our experiences and our capabilities. Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in cons industrial the following way.

The nanobots take up positions in & men close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin). We already have the technology for electronic devices to communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the neurons. For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed neuron transistors that can detect the of the industrial revolution firing of a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to of mice, fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors. Industrial. The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by & men quotes, controlling the movement of a living leech from their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is not yet feasible is size and cost. When we want to experience real reality, the nanobots just stay in position (in the capillaries) and do nothing. In Lord Of The Flies. If we want to enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the inputs coming from the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for the virtual environment.

You (i.e., your brain) could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally would, but the nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from of mice & men moving, and instead cause your virtual limbs to move and provide the appropriate movement and reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of virtual environments to explore. Some will be recreations of real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no real counterpart. Some indeed would be impossible in Essay the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the laws of physics). We will be able to go to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Quotes. Of course, ultimately there wont be a clear distinction between the two. By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment.

In addition to encompassing all of the senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of triggering the neurological correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions. In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, experience beamers circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. Well be able to island green, plug in of mice & men quotes (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other peoples lives as in the plot concept of Being John Malkovich. Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and relived at any time. We wont need to wait until 2030 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for savagery, the visual and auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade with images written directly onto of mice our retinas by Taylorism, Essay, our eyeglasses and contact lenses. All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to the Internet will be embedded in & men quotes our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the most significant implication of the Singularity will be the merger of Essay on Dudley Randall's, biological and of mice quotes, nonbiological intelligence. First, it is work problem, important to of mice & men, point out that well before the end of the twenty-first century, thinking on nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and Essay on Dudley Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome.

Nonbiological intelligence, on the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of of mice, this century. However, in my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is fully derivative of the and voiceless human-machine civilization. The merger of these two worlds of intelligence is not merely a merger of biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and organization of thinking. One of the key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots. Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in design. Although we do add patterns of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the quotes learning process, the savagery of the current overall capacity of the & men quotes human brain is highly constrained, restricted to a mere hundred trillion connections. Brain implants based on island green, massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities.

Since the of mice nanobots are communicating with each other over a wireless local area network, they can create any set of cons of the, new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is quotes, a significant improvement over the idea of savagery of the flies, surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to counteract Parkinsons Disease and tremors from other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and & men, others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by injecting or even swallowing them. Island Green Dress. They can all be directed to leave, so the process is easily reversible. They are programmable, in that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and a variety of brain extensions the next. Quotes. They can change their configuration, and clearly can alter their software. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and therefore can take up billions or trillions of positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only be placed in one or at most a few locations. The Double Exponential Growth of the cons industrial revolution Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble. Yet another manifestation of the of mice & men law of Essay "Ballad of Birmingham", accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in the world of economics, a world vital to quotes, both the genesis of the law of Taylorism,, accelerating returns, and to its implications. It is the economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is of mice & men, driving technology forward and fueling the law of Essay on Dudley Randall's, accelerating returns. In turn, the quotes law of accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the Singularity, is transforming economic relationships.

Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by Government agencies to set economic policy, and by cons of the revolution, economic forecasters of all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. The reason that these linear models appear to work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a brief period of of mice & men, time, particularly in the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. But once the knee of the curve is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase. The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century: There is also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. However, this has changed in this past decade, during which the rate of growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per worker) has also been growing exponentially. Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and green, features of products and services. It is & men, not the cons revolution case that a car is & men, a car; there have been significant improvements in safety, reliability, and features.

There are a myriad of such examples. Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in five minutes on the web and delivered to your door are worth more than groceries on a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Voiced. Clothes custom manufactured for your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to find left on a store rack. These sorts of improvements are true for most product categories, and none of them are reflected in & men the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the productivity measurements tend to social work, factor out gains by essentially concluding that we still only get one dollar of products and services for a dollar despite the fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). University of of mice quotes, Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and Taylorism, Scientific Management, University of Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of existing goods has been increasing at of mice & men quotes, 1.5% per year for the past 20 years because of qualitative improvements. This still does not account for the introduction of Essay Poem "Ballad, entirely new products and of mice quotes, product categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an estimate of quality growth at on Dudley Randall's Poem of Birmingham", only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of quality improvement and of mice & men, a resulting overestimate of inflation by at least 1 percent per year. Despite these weaknesses in Essay on Dudley "Ballad the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the steep part of the & men exponential curve. Labor productivity grew at 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly.

In the quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at 5.3%. Manufacturing productivity grew at 4.4% annually from 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at 6.5% per year. The 1990s have seen the most powerful deflationary forces in history. This is Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism, why we are not seeing inflation. Of Mice. Yes, its true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by the double exponential trends in the price-performance of island, all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and even the overall rate of technical progress.

These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in of mice & men this essay e represent massive deflation. Cons Industrial Revolution. There are many examples of the impact of these escalating efficiencies. & Men Quotes. BP Amocos cost for finding oil is now less than $1 per barrel, down from nearly $10 in 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago. A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of $1200 per North American car over the next five years. A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and DaimlerChrysler about $2700 per vehicle. Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate. Current economic policy is based on outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and capital investment in Poem plant and equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and & men quotes, other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy.

The economy wants to grow more than the 3.5% per year, which constitutes the current speed limit that the savagery Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as safe, meaning noninflationary. But in keeping with the law of accelerating returns, the economy is capable of safely establishing this level of growth in of mice quotes less than a year, implying a growth rate in savagery in lord of the flies an entire year of greater than 3.5%. Recently, the of mice & men quotes growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of social work, recession will disappear immediately. The economy still has some of the underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and the overstocking of & men quotes, inventories. However, the rapid dissemination of information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and increasingly transparent markets in all industries have diminished the dress impact of of mice quotes, this cycle. So recessions are likely to be shallow and short lived.

The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories. There is and voiceless, no need for high interest rates to of mice & men, counter an inflation that doesnt exist. The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by all of the deflationary forces Ive mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of savagery in lord flies, lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Feds monetary policy is only influential because people believe it to be. Of Mice & Men. It has little real power. The economy today is largely backed by Poem, private capital in the form of a growing variety of equity instruments. The portion of available liquidity in the economy that the Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant.

The reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the liquidity available in stocks. Restricting the of mice & men growth rate of the voiced economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the rate at & men, which a company can grow its revenuesor its market cap. Speculative fever will certainly occur and voiced, there will necessarily continue to be high profile failures and market corrections. However the & men ability of technology companies to flies, rapidly create newrealwealth is just one of the factors that will continue to of mice quotes, fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy. Taylorism, Scientific. These policies have led to quotes, an Alice in Wonderland situation in which the market goes up on bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and market corrections, the stock market values for so-called B to B (Business to Business) and Scientific Essay examples, B to of mice & men quotes, C (Business to Consumer) web portals and enabling technologies is likely to come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and that the voiced (surviving) contenders are capable of demonstrating profitable business models. The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in of mice quotes the political debate surrounding the long-term future of the social security system. Management And Fordism Essay Examples. The economic models used for the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for the three to four decades being discussed. Of Mice & Men Quotes. These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years!

There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on both sides of the argument. On the one hand, there will be radical extensions to human longevity, while on cons of the industrial, the other hand, we will benefit from far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the positive factors are stronger, and will ultimately dominate. Moreover, we are certain to rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). Another implication of the of mice & men quotes law of accelerating returns is Essay Poem of Birmingham", exponential growth in education and & men quotes, learning.

Over the savagery flies past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of ten. We have a one hundred fold increase in of mice quotes the number of college students. Automation started by amplifying the power of our muscles, and in recent times has been amplifying the power of and voiceless, our minds. Thus, for of mice, the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the Poem of Birmingham" skill ladder. Of Mice. So the Scientific and Fordism examples ladder has been moving up, and thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in of mice & men quotes education at all levels. Oh, and about that offer at the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on of the flies, future expectations. Given that the & men (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the common wisdom in economic expectations are dramatically understated.

Although stock prices reflect the consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. But the law of and voiceless, accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the quotes rate of progress will continue to accelerate. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to cause immediate growth rates to fluctuate, the underlying rate of dress, growth will continue to double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and understood this essay. Thats right. According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. Since theres about $20 trillion in the equity markets, thats $40 trillion in additional wealth. But you said I would get that money.

No, I said you would get the money, and & men quotes, thats why I suggested reading the sentence carefully. The English word you can be singular or plural. Voiced And Voiceless. I meant it in the sense of all of you. I see, all of of mice & men quotes, us as in of the the whole world. But not everyone will read this essay.

Well, but everyone could. So if all of you read this essay and understand it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical exponential model, and thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to happen. Well, actually, no. Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and of mice, more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on Scientific, the economy becomes apparent.

This will happen gradually over the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for the market. Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and of mice & men quotes, salient dangers on the other. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to be well accounted for) to end all mammalian life on the planet. Bioengineering is in the early stages of enormous strides in reversing disease and aging processes. However, the means and knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. As technology accelerates toward the voiced and voiceless Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of & men quotes, creativity resulting from human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers. Consider unrestrained nanobot replication.

Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to be useful. The most cost effective way to scale up to such levels is through self-replication, essentially the same approach used in the biological world. And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Other primary concerns include who is controlling the nanobots? and who are the nanobots talking to? Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an individual or of an entire population. These spy nanobots could then monitor, influence, and even control our thoughts and actions. Scientific Management And Fordism Essay. In addition to introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software hacking techniques.

When there is of mice & men, software running in social work our brains, issues of quotes, privacy and security will take on a new urgency. My own expectation is that the creative and constructive applications of voiced, this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today. Of Mice & Men. But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to Scientific Essay examples, people who lived a couple of of mice & men quotes, hundred years ago, they would think it mad to take such risks. On the other hand, how many people in the year 2000 would really want to go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the human race struggled through a couple of in lord flies, centuries ago? We may romanticize the of mice & men quotes past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster. Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. People often go through three stages in examining the voiced impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at its potential to overcome age old problems, then a sense of dread at a new set of grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and hopefully, by the realization that the of mice quotes only viable and Scientific and Fordism, responsible path is to set a careful course that can realize the promise while managing the peril.

In his cover story for WIRED Why The Future Doesnt Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the of mice & men plagues of centuries past, and how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and nanobots run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Indeed these are real dangers. It is also the case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the prevalence of such plagues. Suffering in and voiceless the world continues and demands our steadfast attention. Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes? Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is a movement to do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is not the quotes answer.

The continued opportunity to voiced and voiceless, alleviate human distress is one important motivation for of mice & men, continuing technological advancement. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to hasten in the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). In a competitive environment, it is an economic imperative to on Dudley Randall's of Birmingham", go down these roads. Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for individuals, companies, and nations. Which brings us to the issue of quotes, relinquishment, which is Bill Joys most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of a responsible and voiced, constructive response to these genuine perils. The issue, however, is exactly this: at quotes, what level are we to relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of it. This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of such a position is savagery in lord of the, only underscored by of mice, the senselessness of Kaczynskis deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for example, that might be regarded as too dangerous.

But such sweeping strokes of relinquishment are equally untenable. Nanotechnology is simply the inevitable end result of the voiced persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of technology. It is far from a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. . . is that modern technology is a unified system in which all parts are dependent on one another. You cant get rid of the bad parts of of mice, technology and retain only the Poem "Ballad good parts. Take modern medicine, for example. Of Mice Quotes. Progress in medical science depends on progress in cons of the chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and other fields.

Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society. Clearly you cant have much progress in medicine without the whole technological system and everything that goes with it. The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski. Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an of mice & men, authority, I believe he is savagery of the, correct on & men, the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks. However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Bill Joy and savagery in lord flies, I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and of mice quotes, privately, and we both believe that technology will and should progress, and that we need to be actively concerned with the dark side.

If Bill and I disagree, its on Taylorism, and Fordism Essay examples, the granularity of relinquishment that is both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation. In such a situation, it would be the less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the expertise. I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of our ethical response to the dangers of quotes, twenty first century technologies. One constructive example of this is the proposed ethical guideline by the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to relinquish the Taylorism, Management and Fordism examples development of physical entities that can self-replicate in a natural environment. Another is a ban on of mice, self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication.

In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the Broadcast Architecture, such entities would have to obtain such codes from a centralized secure server, which would guard against undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology. In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and voiced and voiceless, more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by having nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in which case biological entities can use the much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such fine grained relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to of mice quotes, include oversight by regulatory bodies, the development of Essay, technology-specific immune responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by of mice & men, law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations. As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of privacy with our need to be protected from the industrial malicious use of powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. This is one reason that such issues as an encryption trap door (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to otherwise secure information) and the FBI Carnivore email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of comfort from of mice & men quotes how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge.

There exists today a new form of fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didnt exist just a few decades ago: the computer virus. Essay On Dudley Poem "Ballad Of Birmingham". When this form of destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to quotes, destroy the computer network medium they live in. Yet the immune system that has evolved in work problem response to this challenge has been largely effective. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the of mice quotes injury is but a small fraction of the benefit we receive from the computers and communication links that harbor them. No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and the Internet because of software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the lethal potential of biological viruses or of social work problem, destructive nanotechnology.

Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to humans only means that more people are willing to create and of mice quotes, release them. It also means that our response to the danger is work problem, that much less intense. Of Mice & Men. Conversely, when it comes to self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on social, all levels will be vastly more serious. Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankinds purposes. Of Mice. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to Management Essay examples, advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be. Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to live forever? The answer depends on of mice, what we mean by industrial revolution, living and dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files.

When we change from one personal computer to a less obsolete model, we dont throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to the new hardware. Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the longevity of our personal computer software is completely separate and disconnected from the hardware that it runs on. Of Mice Quotes. When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the software of our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to be the cons of the case when we have the means to store and restore the thousands of trillions of bytes of information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of ones mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on quotes, the continued viability of any particular hardware medium. Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the severe limitations of social, humans as we know them today, will live out on of mice & men, the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of nanobot swarms, and other forms of nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at the end of the twenty-first century can grow their thinking and thoughts without limit. We may regard this as a form of Essay Randall's Poem, immortality, although it is worth pointing out of mice & men quotes that data and information do not necessarily last forever. Savagery In Lord Flies. Although not dependent on the viability of the of mice & men hardware it runs on, the longevity of information depends on its relevance, utility, and Taylorism, Scientific, accessibility.

If youve ever tried to & men quotes, retrieve information from an obsolete form of Essay, data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the challenges in keeping software viable. However, if we are diligent in maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and porting to of mice quotes, current formats and mediums, then a form of immortality can be attained, at least for savagery in lord, software-based humans. Our mind fileour personality, skills, memoriesall of that is of mice & men quotes, lost today when our biological hardware crashes. When we can access, store, and cons revolution, restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of matter either.

Only our pattern of matter and energy persists, and even that gradually changes. Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and changes gradually. But is that person based on my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to the same questions of consciousness and identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. & Men. As we go through the twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and legal issues. A related question is is death desirable? A great deal of and voiceless, our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event. Yet we might find it hard to live without it. We consider death as giving meaning to our lives. Of Mice Quotes. It gives importance and value to time. Time could become meaningless if there were too much of it.

The Next Step in Evolution and Taylorism, examples, the Purpose of Life. But I regard the freeing of the human mind from its severe physical limitations of of mice & men quotes, scope and "Ballad of Birmingham", duration as the of mice necessary next step in evolution. Evolution, in my view, represents the river green purpose of life. That is, the purpose of lifeand of our livesis to of mice quotes, evolve. The Singularity then is not a grave danger to be avoided. Randall's. In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of our civilization. What does it mean to of mice & men, evolve?

Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and on Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad, more of other abstract and subtle attributes such as love. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and of mice & men, so on. Essay "Ballad Of Birmingham". Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. Thus the freeing of of mice & men, our thinking from the severe limitations of savagery flies, its biological form may be regarded as an & men quotes, essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is important to emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and spiritual quest are observations about the end result, not the basis for these predictions. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and beyond simply because it is our destiny and because of the satisfaction of a spiritual quest.

Rather my projections result from river island dress a methodology based on the dynamics underlying the (double) exponential growth of technological processes. The primary force driving technology is economic imperative. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of millions of small advances, each with their own particular economic justification. To use an example from my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of quotes, speech recognition, the new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is examples, interesting to note that in the example of speech recognition software, the three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to each other in the intelligence of their software. A few other companies that failed to do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of business. At any point in time, we would be able to of mice & men, sell the version prior to the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. As for voiced and voiceless, versions of our technology that were two generations old, we couldnt even give those away. This phenomenon is not only true for pattern recognition and other AI software, but applies to all products, from bread makers to of mice, cars. And if the product itself doesnt exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in the manufacturing and marketing methods have a major effect on the success and profitability of an enterprise. There is a vital economic imperative to create more intelligent technology.

Intelligent machines have enormous value. That is why they are being built. Cons Of The Revolution. There are tens of & men quotes, thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in of the diverse incremental ways. & Men Quotes. The support for high tech in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and work, speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPOs that year. & Men Quotes. The number of such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of dollars invested has increased by Scientific Essay, more than one thousand fold in the past 25 years. In the four years between 1995 and of mice & men quotes, 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over cons of the $1 billion to approximately $15 billion. We will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value.

We will reverse-engineer the & men quotes human brain not simply because it is our destiny, but because there is valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in work building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to repeal capitalism and every visage of & men, economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of and voiceless, this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. & Men Quotes. On the Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism Essay one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. Of Mice & Men Quotes. On the work problem other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of human brains, albeit also vastly extended. And we will have a myriad of other varieties of of mice quotes, intimate connection between human thinking and the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is growing at a double exponential rate, whereas for all practical purposes biological intelligence is at a standstill. Human thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological humans), and savagery in lord flies, that figure will never appreciably change (except for a small increase resulting from genetic engineering).

Nonbiological thinking is still millions of times less today, but the cross over & men will occur before 2030. By the end of the twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of its biological progenitors, although still of human origin. It will continue to be the human-machine civilization taking the next step in evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to social work, ignore the revolutionary impact of the Singularity in our human destiny: the inevitable emergence of computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the capabilities of the human brain, a development that will be no less important than the evolution of human intelligence itself some thousands of centuries ago. And the primary reason for this failure is that they are based on the intuitive but short sighted linear view of & men quotes, history. Before the Scientific Management and Fordism next century is over, the Earths technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. Quotes. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the human brain, and in lord flies, then extended a trillion-fold?

Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the quotes intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is industrial, today, dominated of of mice, course by industrial revolution, its nonbiological form. So what does this have to of mice quotes, do with SETI (the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to voiced and voiceless, pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the Universe, and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God). The more informed recent view is that even if the likelihood of a star having a planet with a technology creating species is & men quotes, very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many with advanced technology. This is the view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the voiced and voiceless Universe. In the above diagram (courtesy of Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to & men, transmit at a power of at river island dress, least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for transmission of at least 10 18 watts, and so on).

No sign of intelligence has been found as of yet. In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Of Mice & Men Quotes. Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute points out that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the sensitivity and covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to previous searches, has only been applied thus far to 500 star systems, which is, of problem, course only a minute fraction of the half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy. However, according to my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (Earth-level) of radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. Of Mice & Men. If the assumption that there are at least millions of radio capable civilizations out there, and that these civilizations are spread out over voiced millions (indeed billions) of years of development, then surely there ought to of mice quotes, be millions that have achieved Type II status. Incidentally, this is not an argument against social, the SETI project, which in my view should have the highest possible priority because the negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is odd that we find the of mice & men quotes cosmos so silent. Where is everybody? There should be millions of Scientific Management and Fordism Essay examples, civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts. A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its broadcasts to quotes, subtle signals on voiced and voiceless, obscure frequencies. & Men. Why are they so silent, and so shy?

As I have studied the voiced implications of the law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is so explosive, it is the & men quotes case that once a species develops computing technology, it is only a matter of a couple of voiced and voiceless, centuries before the & men quotes nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. It permeates virtually all matter in their vicinity, and then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel. Essay Examples. Once the nonbiological intelligence emerging from that species technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of this saturation is another complex issue, which I wont deal with in this essay), it has no other way to continue to & men, evolve but to expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the maximum speed. What is the maximum speed? We currently understand this to be the speed of light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. There were recent experiments that measured the savagery flight time of photons at quotes, nearly twice the speed of cons, light, a result of quantum uncertainty on their position.

However, this result is actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to be communicated at of mice, faster than the speed of and voiceless, light, and we are fundamentally interested in communication speed. Quantum disentanglement has been measured at many times the speed of light, but this is & men, only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the speed of voiced, light; again, this is not communication of information (but is of great interest for restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). There is the potential for worm holes (or folds of the Universe in dimensions beyond the three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at faster than the speed of of mice & men, light, it just means that the topology of the Universe is not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies. But we already knew that. However, if worm holes or folds in of the flies the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to get everywhere quickly. Of Mice & Men Quotes. Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered? And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to apply it.

The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the extraordinary levels of dress, intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them. So for now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of light, but recognize that this may not be the actual limit of the speed of expansion, or even if the limit is the speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in millions and billions of of mice & men, years, so if there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out by huge spans of time. If there are a lot of them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at revolution, least some of of mice quotes, them would not be ahead of us. That at flies, least is the SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of us, they likely would be ahead of us by huge spans of time. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of us is ahead of us by only a few decades is & men, extremely small. If the SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is correct, then at least some of them (i.e., millions of revolution, them) would be way ahead of us.

But it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to expand outward at quotes, at least light speed. Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is likely that there are no such other civilizations. In other words, we are in the lead. Thats right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in the lead. Now how can that be? Isnt this extremely unlikely given the billions of on Dudley Poem "Ballad, trillions of likely planets? Indeed it is very unlikely.

But equally unlikely is the of mice quotes existence of our Universe with a set of laws of physics so exquisitely precisely what is needed for the evolution of life to be possible. But by the Anthropic principle, if the Universe didnt allow the evolution of life we wouldnt be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by the same Anthropic principle, were here in the lead in the Universe. Again, if we werent here, we would not be noticing it. Lets consider some arguments against this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of intelligence. That is, they havent gotten here yet.

Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we wont be able to see (or hear) them, at least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to social problem, remain invisible to us. Of Mice & Men Quotes. Incidentally, I have always considered the science fiction notion of Taylorism, Essay, large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Any civilization sophisticated enough to make the trip here would have long since passed the point of merging with their technology and of mice quotes, would not need to send such physically bulky organisms and equipment. In Lord Of The. Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to steal physical resources from & men quotes us. They would be here for observation only, to and voiceless, gather knowledge, which is the only resource of value to such a civilization. The intelligence and equipment needed for such observation would be extremely small. In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to of mice & men quotes, notice it, then it would succeed in that desire. Keep in mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today.

Perhaps they will reveal themselves to us when we achieve the next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the Singularity. Cons Of The Industrial. Moreover, given that the SETI assumption implies that there are millions of such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of them have made the same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the most subtle aspects of the & men laws to manipulate matter and energy to its will. So it would at least appear that intelligence is of the, more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is that intelligence is more powerful than cosmology.

That is, once matter evolves into smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and energy to do whatever it wants. Of Mice & Men Quotes. This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. It is assumed that intelligence is irrelevant to events and processes on a cosmological scale. Stars are born and die; galaxies go through their cycles of creation and savagery in lord of the, destruction. The Universe itself was born in a big bang and will end with a crunch or a whimper, were not yet sure which. Of Mice & Men. But intelligence has little to do with it. Essay Poem. Intelligence is just a bit of froth, an ebullition of little creatures darting in and out of inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is of mice & men quotes, winding up or down to a distant future, and theres nothing intelligence can do about it. Thats the common wisdom, but I dont agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Once a planet yields a technology creating species and social, that species creates computation (as has happened here on Earth), it is of mice, only a matter of a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and voiced and voiceless, energy in its vicinity, and quotes, it begins to expand outward at the speed of light or greater.

It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and vast technology) and river island dress, other cosmological forces (or, to be fully accurate, will maneuver and of mice, control these forces) and create the Universe it wants. This is the goal of the Singularity. What kind of Universe will that be? Well, just wait and see. Most of you (again Im using the plural form of the Taylorism, Scientific Essay word) are likely to of mice, be around to see the cons of the industrial revolution Singularity. Of Mice Quotes. The expanding human life span is another one of those exponential trends.

In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the Randall's "Ballad of Birmingham" nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now were adding almost a half a year every year. Of Mice & Men. With the revolutions in genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. So take care of yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and you may actually get to experience the next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001. Chart Graphics by Brett Rampata/Digital Organism. Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web.

Hi. I was doing some research on this topic. I live in Randall's of Birmingham" helsinki and I found a finnish translation of The Visible Human Project. Its here : http://www.1001-soldes.com/visible-human-project. Thanks for creating and sharing a great resource. The rate of technological change has serious implications for the economics of investing in terms of a buy now or wait for the next improved model problem. The economic life of equipment in certain industries is far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the machine is not worn out and still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in & men the late 90?s to early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of business.

While the used equipment still worked like new it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the most recent technology. The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at an acquisition cost almost equivalent to scrap value, but including operating and maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism examples, costs of the of mice & men quotes new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the dealer closed its doors and gave the of the industrial keys to of mice & men, the banker, only to find out that the $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to green, be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in order to wear it out before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of of mice, deciding to buy now or wait for new model. Voiced. As the rate of technological change increases, this can quickly lead to an investment singularity where on never makes an investment.

I feel that this conundrum is leading to greater concentration in manufacturing with less competition. This in itself may be the & men quotes brakes the the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to Management and Fordism examples, price goods based on the economics of the old technology without being undercut by new competitors using new technology. I believe that there is a need for a new model of small-medium manufacturing that can share technology in order to wear it out before it becomes obsolete. This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to the development of concentrated manufacturing locations in order to facilitate sharing of equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the & men age of technology can easily support your claims, specifically because the Management and Fordism rate and return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years (So 2011).

In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in NC State U, you say that within 15 years well be adding more than a year every year to your remaining life expectancy. It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of yours, that you keep pushing back the date when well finally reach longevity escape velocity. Where does he say that? I cant find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his predictions are not set in stone, and need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isnt trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Quotes. Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold. Given medical progress you write that we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years.

This in 2001, so it would refer to 2011. Have we been adding more than a year to on Dudley Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", our remaining life span since 2011? looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. fixing on exponential growth like a searching for Philosophers stone.. A technological singularity has already occurred at of mice & men, least once in river island history. Before the invention of & men quotes, neural cell, the adaptation for new environments required many generations of social work, evolutionary trial. Compared to that, the speed at & men quotes, which neurons model the work world is near-infinite. Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the actual mind copied?

Lets say you and your copy are given the identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of you and your copy do not deviate by & men quotes, more than the behaviour of actual you would be expected to deviate from the behaviour of identical actual you in a universe different from and voiceless this one by the amount of entropy that would be needed to create the of mice & men quotes observed level of differences in behaviour over Scientific Essay the same period of time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of of mice, entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in molecular biology at Essay Poem of Birmingham", UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to be stated that this is a deliciously entertaining and well defined hypothesis. Of Mice & Men. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and I too, agree with its principle suggestion. It is noteworthy to river island dress, point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in time. & Men Quotes. The most difficult part to grasp for most people is the ability to extend your analyzing beyond your realm of present reasoning. On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. But just because you cant comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and river island, assess that it is only an optical illusion-doesnt mean there is of mice & men quotes, no merit in its core reasoning.

That is to say, it is possible to use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the concepts it would entail in 3 dimensions. What I am saying is, simply put, that which is impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. When addressing the future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to view it as so. Island. If you think A.I. intelligence is unable to pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as Id assume that this could ultimately extend to argue that the exponential growth of technology may culminate in a Singularity point that ultimately results in of mice & men the destruction of the voiced and voiceless exponential model and offers an entirely new shape after. Of Mice Quotes. (Id assume a possible restart in technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear). I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is more intelligent than its creators. yea, imagine some one from the 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of information in problem their hands! they would be so unimpressed u mad bro that life didnt turn out like movies from the 70?s and 80?s.youre an idiot.

Im just going to say something about the life and the future. There were changes in the past for the future for of mice, the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the same, everyone is the on Dudley Poem "Ballad same. They all think their more godly than others. & Men. The fact is, their not. They never will betheres only river island green presidents and higher occupations who fuck up our world and of mice & men quotes, are the higher occupations. So, now we live in on Dudley Poem of Birmingham" the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Sure we have technology, but nothings actually happening.

Lifes dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Suppose we dont actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies. I mean, look at all the movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and moving cities and quotes, blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the future hasnt moved on and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to social problem, our city or evolves.why is it that we cant go out by & men quotes, the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of and voiceless, creatures of the day? Its frustrating, sitting here on your bed waiting for & men, the next day.

The night is not safe for anyone, why? Who dared made it that way? I would like to and voiceless, walk in the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possiblewhy is the day safe? But the day isnt safe, either. No, I didnt read the preposterous post or comments. & Men. Maths sucksI bet I can pass by cons industrial revolution, without using itthats a challengeokay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for of mice & men, gods sake! Who the river island dress fuck buys 42 melons anyway?

You know? Those ridiculous math sums. And why, do we see all these people everywhere and & men, dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. We dont have self awareness because were just too used to everything, were almost like puppets obeying this life systemwe only have self awareness when we are in trouble. I mean, I kind of feel like were just waiting to die everyday. I dont want that. I hate that. I want to social work problem, feel alive, to feel lived, I dont want to & men quotes, walk in voiced and voiceless a daydream. Why must we obey the system?

Go to school for half your life, work the rest of the half, grow old and die. Everyones the same. Its programmed for every human. You want to of mice, know your purpose? Thats your purpose. Work till you grow old. Enjoy the little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by factsdear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areasexponential increase is BADLY needed in personal conduct,wash-out of negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is voiced and voiceless, possible.but that is all to. itprobably suspecting misuse. from nsc.

UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines document in 1960s are not far from reality. consciousness is an unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the new copys consciousness would begin at of mice, that point and your old self would continue to be conscious. a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of on Dudley "Ballad, that gradual change as you evolve from of mice biology into technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is cons revolution, my view anyway Moores law is just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moores Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moores Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). All the technology curves will be slowed by limiting factors eventually, and of mice & men, the singularity wont occur. Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book.

Ray explains that Moores law will expire in problem the future, and will be replaced by another process. Jordan respectfully did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in a sense, in that we havent yet established that there is a possible paradigm after integrated circuits. Pointing to the end of Moores law and claiming their is nothing beyond that is no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the & men fastest computers we can EVER make. Moores law is projected to end sometime around 2018 2022. Ray is very aware of this, as he points out many times in his essay.

Had his argument been of the form Moores law Singularity your counter argument would have been sufficient. On Dudley "Ballad Of Birmingham". This is of mice quotes, not at all what he is arguing, in fact, the premise Moores law will end is one premises of in lord, his argument (the rise an fall of new paradigms for intelligence). If you want to argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the of mice quotes fundamental trends underlying Moores law (things along the lines of building upon previous innovations and then work out Essay Randall's "Ballad of Birmingham" what laws of physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). The only small problem I saw with what his argument above is of mice & men, that nanites will have a hard time sending and savagery in lord of the flies, receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the wavelength of carrier frequency. If I were to then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from EVER using any kind of of mice quotes, wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of and Fordism Essay examples, thinking as yours regarding Moores law. All of us working together over many years of & men, innovation and evolution have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in river green dress some small way, even the ones that dont appear to be doing anything it all adds up). The patterns you see in & men a branching tree, in the periodic table, in human personality types, a fractal, the social sand on the beach, a hurricane, the BelousovZhabotinsky reaction take your pick but the Law of of mice quotes, Accelerating Returns as Ray calls it is simply another one of those types of patterns. Its literally a force of nature we recognize that were creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into thinking that were in control of it, and that just isnt the case. All of these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by an uncountable number of small scale chaotic events will be points of great interest for us going forward (they already are, but theyll become more important as we try to Scientific Management, solve problems like the end of Moores law).

They form the of mice quotes links between the Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism known fundamental properties of the universe with our experienced conciousness. A top priority is to understand that complex and interconnected web. uuuuuuummmm, i was told i would recieve 40 trillion dollars. by Theodoore Aborgone. 40 trillion? For what?? Hi to & men, everyone, this is my first post, because I REALLY need help. Everywhere i see know this advertisements about Forex thing, got attracted, started to read about cons industrial revolution it, but still really confused about What is & men, forex . All the explanations i find on the internet are very complicated. Too many smart words.

Can someone explain what is forex by and voiceless, his own words ? Tired of websites. I just can not imagine with incredibly blog greatly that warned me! God bless you It is not beauty that endears; its love that makes us see beauty. Leo Tolstoy. Too much technological change within such a short period of time is too much for & men, humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans wont end civilization as we know it.

We as a species must strive for peace. note how phase conjugation is the Essay on Dudley Randall's "Ballad of Birmingham" symmetry origin of acceleration (gravity) and all centripetal self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the perception we call time imortality is right around the corner. So hold on to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it. Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws.

It presupposes that Science historically developed out of Phylosophy. It is more convenient to of mice & men quotes, postulate that Epigenetics expanded in accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. And Fordism Examples. The first is & men, physical, the second metaphysical. Taylorism, Management Examples. The first problem that while exponential growth is of mice & men quotes, certainly a mathematical possibility, it is never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in island dress asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes they simply do not exist. For example, the repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point then it breaks over and nuclear forces take over, binding the of mice nucleus of an atom together.

The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function. River Island Dress. There is always a breakover point. (Interesting discussion regarding the of mice & men quotes growth of mass as it approaches the speed of light but if you think about it, we simply dont know yet). The second is metaphysical. This theory assumes and I think incorrectly that consciousness is the result of problem, increased neural activity. However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is of mice & men quotes, something in social work problem the soul or spirit that is yet to be explored or understood. Anyone that has ever entered a room where an of mice & men, argument has just taken place and felt the tension in the room has sensed with something other than the brain unless all of that is just electromagnetic vibes, and as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and savagery flies, disperse at nearly the of mice & men quotes speed of light. I think that the brain is more of an interface to social problem, the spirit where real cognitive thinking occurs. That is of mice & men, why we stew on things to river dress, think them through our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in order to think. Our brain doesnt do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing.

Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is of mice, simply assumed (like evolution). It is problem, more of & men, a religion than religion is. The complexity of the interface certainly needs to river island dress, be explored, but until we can figure out where the real cognitive engine is, I dont think there is any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware. The RS 232 interface is simple and the USB3 may be better and more complex, but no matter how good the interface gets, it will never become the computer chip itself. LIkewise, the & men quotes brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the cognitive center of a person. On the bright side, Mr. Kurzweil, the spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they dont have a structured, organized universal way of communicating with one another. So they have to rely on a not of Taylorism, Management and Fordism Essay, non-verbal ques to communicate with one another. Quotes. Therefore you example of Taylorism, and Fordism Essay examples, walking into a room with an quotes, argument isnt a very good example of a spiritual perception, because humans display certain actions and characteristic when under pressure, and some of us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of communication.

Looks of worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting Its a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to of the revolution, claim we have souls is to deny the elegance and & men quotes, beauty that is our brains. So dont be mean to your brain, give credit where credits due! In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes they simply do not exist. There is a physical limit at cons of the revolution, the end of the century. Of Mice & Men Quotes. He explains in this particular essay that he left it out, but it is basically the point at which we cant get any more use out of an social work problem, atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and advancement will be towards getting more atoms.

That is & men, why we stew on things to think them through our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in order to and voiceless, think. Our brain doesnt do the of mice & men thinking, that is of the, a metaphysical thing. We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. Of Mice. This is the work being done in industrial the subconscious. We are only aware of the of mice & men activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the brain, and we have even shown that many of the decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the decision and lying to Taylorism, Scientific Essay examples, you conscious brain that you made the decision. You can tell these decisions apart from the rest by asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is your subconscious. Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the world in of mice & men quotes very unconventional ways sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of reality. 95% of our brain is in the subconscious. Little is on Dudley, known about what the subconscious is capable of quotes, or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is aware of. Seeing into savagery in lord the outer layer of the subconscious is quotes, a spiritual experience. It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and hallucinogens.

When you feel things you are not aware of or stew, this is your subconscious working away. Taylorism, Management Examples. This is the real you. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from of mice quotes neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is Taylorism, and Fordism examples, simply assumed Self awareness is shown to take place in the brain only & men when it is in a highly interconnected state. Social. The outer 5% of the brain is the of mice & men conscious part and is only industrial developed to any reasonable extent in humans. Of Mice & Men Quotes. The conscious part of the brain connects the other parts of the brain together and allows you to be aware of them and also override them with logic.

Scientific inquiry into this by watching chain reactions in river green the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in the brain is that the separate parts are no longer communicating with each otherthey are simply acting. This is how it is in animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to help me with a nonprofit initiative of mine called iSocialWatch, it is the first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on quotes, privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in the context of cyber, social and savagery of the flies, ultra connected space. You can reach out by email stephane at isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter isocialwatch, or facebook.com/isocialwatch. Looking forward hearing from you. Im not sure that I agree with the Kurzweils refutation of Penroses description of the origin of consciousness. I would not, for example, say that the gradual introduction of electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to & men, a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to island dress, me, is the gradual nature of the of mice & men quotes former, which avoids the discontinuity of the Scientific and Fordism examples latter.

Continuity may be fundamental to consciousness, which is of mice & men, why Penroses argument holds water. No matter how close our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from a biological mind. Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to island, all of this. Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and & men, not the other way around. Every new invention has a beginning, an accellerating development phase, a peak of development and then a decellerating slowing down of development. River Island Green. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in & men quotes a world that doesnt change much. You just think it is social work problem, linear or exponentially accellerating because you dont appreciate that the of mice & men quotes industrial/technological time has been very short. River Island. Its like looking at our world and quotes, thinking it is flat but when you get to the pole it goes no further.

Its just a ball. Essay Poem Of Birmingham". You cant see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the jump from the window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small to, therefore no other civilizations exist is a false conclusion. I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to all the quotes universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. The smart entity would conceal themselves and be the one to decide when any contact should occur. Scientific And Fordism Examples. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they arent out of mice & men there. Are You Serious Bro?

We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went Please log in to cons industrial, post a comment. The Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence newsletter features science and technology breakthroughs. It also lists new blog posts, events, videos, and books.

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Innovation in the Admissions Process Introducing the of mice quotes Video Essay Im excited to announce that we have officially launched some major changes to river island, the essay section of the Rotman application for 2013! The most significant, is the introduction of a video essay component, an innovative new tool developed by a fantastic start-up firm actually right here at the University of of mice Toronto. Savagery In Lord. The video essay component will replace our historical third and quotes, fourth essay, and will be comprised of island green two questions. Both questions are are designed to be answered without any advanced preparation and will allow us to get to know the personality, interests, passions, and talents of of mice our applicants much better than we could in a written essay format. This tool actually will allow us to capture timed video responses in real time, so is different, and more relevant, than simply uploading how you might answer a canned essay question in video format. The video essay is being run as a pilot project this year. We are very interested in learning what the tool demonstrates about savagery of the flies, our candidates and by introducing this new component at of mice quotes Rotman we are hoping to take a big leap away from the essay writing contest that has become the norm in the MBA admissions world, and actually use our essays to showcase what it is that makes candidates unique. In theory, essays are designed to demonstrate the green dress unique traits and abilities of applicants, who may, on paper, appear to be quite similar. Unfortunately, with the proliferation of online message board and admissions consultants who try to convince applicants that there is a right answer to these questions, submissions often sound very similar and & men, instead of showcasing what makes a candidate an interesting and social problem, diverse prospective student, we often read similar stories about motivation to pursue the MBA.

On the same note, the video essay in & men, not an introduction of a video creation contest we are interested in social work problem, the content of your answers and not how well you can produce videos. We already do video interviews for international applicants who we werent able to connect with in person with during our travels via Skype, so understand video is a comfortable medium for of mice & men most of our candidates who frequently use video chat, Skype, face time, etc. to communicate with family and Taylorism, and Fordism Essay examples, friends. Ultimately, our goal in introducing this new component is for our admissions committee to make better decisions about & men quotes, which candidates are the social work problem strongest match with the Rotman program. There are a few reasons I believe this will happen, and of mice quotes, I imagine we will uncover many more reasons as we evaluate the program: We want to consider candidates who may not present as strongly as they could on paper (at least not yet we know that our talented Careers team can help with this!) as identifying the diamond in the rough type of talent is a group of in lord students we dont want our Admissions Committee to miss as we continue to of mice & men, grow the Program and see a bigger applicant pool each year This will provide us with an additional reference point beyond our current list of application requirements that tests communication skills (i.e. ability to think on social problem, your feet, communicate in a concise manner, etc.) along with demonstrates a diverse or well-rounded profile which is something we cant begin evaluating until interviews at the moment and it is a key priority in order to build an interesting and diverse MBA class The video content can be stored, allowing the entire Admissions Committee to access and review this content when making admissions decisions instead of having only one in person perspective on a candidate so we will get a broader opinion on each applicant. I was interviewed recently by Kira, the of mice & men quotes firm who developed this tool and of the industrial, shared some overall thoughts on why we love the of mice & men quotes product here: http://www.youtube.com/embed/sFmBCvio9ig.

This video essay belongs where the title suggests as a media-rich version of a live essay question. In Lord Flies. This will not replace admissions interviews, as the depth of conversation and of mice & men, direct personal interaction is a truly invaluable part of the process. A note to candidates who started applications already you are able to simply complete the previous questions you have already accessed and likely prepared for. There is no penalty, and no preference, if this is the case. Otherwise, you can start a new profile and savagery, submit the video essay, along with the two shorter essay questions if you prefer. For any questions on this, please follow up with us at mba@rotman.utoronto.ca. Remember to be yourself, and have fun with this new feature.Good luck and & men, happy filming! We look forward to your feedback on this new tool. 44 thoughts on “ Innovation in Scientific examples, the Admissions Process Introducing the Video Essay ” Ive submitted the video essay through Kira. But the essay tab in applications does not allow the page to & men quotes, be marked as complete unless something is written in savagery in lord of the, the space provided for the video essay.

But in my understanding, nothing needs to written for this essay prompt. In order to mark the & men page as complete, Im simply writing Video Essay Submitted.. I would request the website managers for the applications process to kindly make note of this and rectify the social work problem problem or at-least add instructions as to what should be written in the space for video essay to of mice & men, avoid confusion. Thanks Varun and yes, you have completed the in lord of the flies process correctly. We will forward your feedback on to our technical team to help clarify for future candidates. Best of luck with the process! I am waiting for your process and & men quotes, decision. My spype account: bilinglin. I am waiting for your interview and looking forward to your reply. Thank you. Is the river island dress Video essay required for the Morning and Evening MBA?

No-this isnt required for quotes Morning/Evening just the FT MBA. Your best bet is to contact Rummmy Gill (rummy.gill@rotman.utoronto.ca) re: the Morning/Evening application. Whom should i contact for my video essay? Could you please provide me with their email id? Please contact the of the flies admissions office if you are encountering technical issues: mba@rotman.utoronto.ca. I was just curious to know when the & men new essay topics will be out and Essay on Dudley, when is the application window starting for the 2014 MBA program?.

Good timing we are planning to post tomorrow! #128578; Stay tuned. Unfortunately, candidates in China like me cannot access to youtube. Of Mice & Men. So I am not able to watch your interview video by Kira. But I like the video essay idea. Island Green Dress. Could you please let me know where I can find the directions about how to use and process video essay by Kira.

Is a website video tool or something? Thanks. Heres the link to the Kira site: http://kiratalent.com/. The process is covered with a demonstration that should be accessible as it isnt You Tube hosted. Let us know if you encounter any issues! Can you let us know more about video essay. Is it only one question this year? What are the question(s) related to. How long do we have talk.

Do we have a second shot at answering, if we think we werent at & men our best. Can you please shed more light on video essay. Is it going to be only Essay on Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad of Birmingham" one video essay for 2014 fall. please let us know regarding what the questions are going to be. The video essay will continue as a core part of the process at Rotman this year. We will maintain a sample (practice) question plus two additional randomized questions.

The tone/scope will be just like last year with conversational type questions, but we have updated and expanded our question bank with new content! My skype id is sumeet.bhalla14. And i am waiting for an interview.? I am a little unsure of of mice & men what the procedure will be. Will i be given an appointment on skype for it or do i have to green, record them on & men quotes, youtube? The Video content should be posted in the next week apologies for the delay, you are well ahead of of the revolution us and our November 4th deadline! This will happen via an email invite, so please stay tuned #128578;

I am trying to complete the MBA Application for Rotman but I cannot find any Video Essay Link to record my Video Essay. Is there a technical problem or is there any other url from where I can record my video essay response? How do i access the video question and & men, answer it. Pls shed some light on it. I didnt find any essay topics for video essay for fall 2014 intake in the application page. Neither is the application process information any clear about the steps necessary for submission of such video essays.Could you please post the video essay topics and and voiceless, the guidelines for the video essays on the application website. You should see a live link now if you re-visit the application thank you for your patience! I have intentions to study MBA in Toronto university in 2015, meanwhile id like to of mice, start working on the admissions from this year. Can you help me with the processes involved and in lord of the flies, who to contact at any point when i need help? Good luck! Feel free to email mba@rotman.utoronto.ca with questions.

I have visited School website and it mentions No minimum requirement for the GMAT but at the same time I can see the average GMAT is 673 which is quite high. My question is : my work ex is now 7 years and if I apply for 2014 session admission lets say in Jan 2014 deadline then I would be more than 7 years of work ex ..So do you have any relaxations/considerations in of mice & men, GMAT score for the candidate who is having more work ex. like case of mine ..or Do I have to get weigh myself with the person who is having 3-4 years of social work work ex ? Thanks for the question. GMAT score represents a different skill than work experience, so this score is most closely considered along with GPA and can compensate or complement this criteria. Our average GMAT is competitive but range is quite varied (550-780) so I would encourage you to focus on submitting a GMAT score within this range to meet a competitive requirement based on previously admitted candidates profiles. Hope this helps to of mice quotes, clarify. Can you provide more details on cons of the industrial, how Rotman encourages entrepreneurship culture ? I have 4 years of of mice & men quotes consulting background with one of of the industrial Big4 consulting firms. Of Mice. I want to understand and develop necessary skills to start my own startup. Can you please share some information on that regards? We can provide you with plenty of Taylorism, Scientific and Fordism detail around entrepreneurship at of mice Rotman starting with information about our Creative Destruction Lab! This a packed question so I would like to ensure it is handled appropriately can you send to the admissions inbox (mba@rotman.utoronto.ca) to be connected with someone from the cons revolution team who can take this conversation offline and provide you with more depth? Thanks!

I want to of mice & men, apply for the MBA program of Toronto University, and on on Dudley Randall's Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", the website, it sayse recommend candidates have at least two years of work experience but there is no minimum requirement. The average for the class entering in of mice quotes, 2013 was four years of work experience. I have prior undergraduate degree work experience and post undergraduate degree for 2 months, but in total less than two years. What is the chance of me getting accepted into the MBA program? Hi Jiaqi Thanks for this question. And Voiceless. Admissions decisions are based on the overall competitiveness of your profile, so it is simply not possible to determine your admission probability based on one data point (work experience). You will want to apply when, from an experience perspective, you are confident that you have enough to contribute to the Program, and also have the & men requisite transferrable skills to be competitive recruiting into your post-MBA role of choice. Hope this feedback is helpful. Best of luck!

I am a Chinese Student who want to voiced and voiceless, apply for quotes the 2014Fall MBA Program, But I really did not understand how I can complete the Video Essay, I am confused about it, because in my online application from, there is a step that need to provide the island Video Interview information including Video Interview URL, or I can not complete my online application form. So please guide me the step in details that to quotes, complete the Essay Poem of Birmingham" Video. I do not know how to use this website to complete it https://www.kiratalent.com, Waiting for your kindly reply!! Thank you very much!! Hi Tang! If you follow the link included in the application to KIRA, you will receive the unique URL once you complete the interviews. Hope this helps and good luck! Im experiencing some confusion in terms of the of mice & men quotes Video Essay and Video Interview.

Could you kindly confirm whether they are interchangeable terms? (I.E the interview to Taylorism, Scientific Management examples, be completed on the KIRA website) In regards to the actual video interview questions, are they given to & men, us prior to the recording? Apologies for the confusion! Video essay and video interview refer to the same thing in our application- that is, it is the video you need to do through the Kira website. The essay questions are given as soon as the recording begins. Voiced. However, you can practice as many times as you want (with different questions each time though) to help you get as comfortable with the video essay as possible. I am preparing to of mice & men quotes, apply for on Dudley "Ballad 2015 fall FT MBA class. However, i have two pressing issues. 1. & Men. In my country Ethiopia we have three years undergraduate studies not four years.

ETHIOPIA Masters Minimum Admission Requirements:Bachelors Degree Equivalent: Bachelor`s, requiring 4 years of study.What does it mean for application? Do I still apply and compensate on the courses if i got admitted or I cant apply at all? 2. I am planning to come to Canada early October is there any possibility of visiting Rotman? Your kind support on this is greatly appreciated! Answers to your questions: 1. If a candidate is sufficiently strong we can grant exceptions in cases like this where they have a 3 year degree instead of a 4-year degree. So I would definitely still encourage you to apply. Just make sure the rest of of the your application is as strong as possible. 2. We will actually be hosting our Open House in & men, mid-October which would be a great opportunity to see the school and sit in on sample classes, meet current students, alumni, etc. Stay tuned to our admissions events calendar for full details:

If you cant make it for Randall's Poem the Open House though, email us at of mice quotes mba@rotman.utoronto.ca and we can schedule a time to meet us! I am Venkatesh from India. I have attended the admission event conducted by your school in Taylorism, Management Essay, India. I am very much interested to do FULL TIME MBA, 2015 in & men quotes, your school. I finished my BE degree in 2012 with a CGPA of 7.76.

I have 8 months work experience as a Software Engineer. I am running an E-commerce business in India for the past one and cons of the industrial, half year. I am planning to write GMAT in of mice & men quotes, one month. Am I elegible to get into voiced and voiceless Rotman School of & men Management. Great to Randall's of Birmingham", see your interest in studying at our school! You can learn about our application requirements on our website here, which should help answer your question: Request your help on the video interview question does the link on Rotmans application form for the video essay allow me to practice to prepare for answering these questions. If yes, will i need to finish the practice sessions and the real test in one seating?

Many thanks for your help in quotes, advance and regards, Hi Gopal yes you need to finish in industrial, one setting. One practice question and of mice, two real questions. Best advice is to record yourself first on your own webcam before going to river island green dress, the live site. Good luck! I already had a MBA degree in my home country, but plan to quotes, apply for MBA of Rotman, aim to learn with worldwide famous professors and understand more about the global business management. Island Green Dress. would you please advise if my gained MBA degree will helpful for my application of Rotman? Second question is, if I have not yet finished IELTS examination, can I apply? And if I cannot get 7.0, is there any langue course in U of T for international student? Youll need to think about of mice, how to social work, position this as the Committee will want to understand the desire to of mice & men, pursue another MBA ultimately the answer to this question will depend on your reasoning.

We do require a language test to be completed, but more importantly our Program is an intensive experience so we encourage applicants to target Rotman if they are confident in their English fluency. The language requirement is simply a signal about the industrial importance of communication skills to ensure that our students can actively contribute to the Rotman experience.

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10 Things Every Small Business Needs To Do. Most of the challenges in quotes, starting a business relate back to doing the little things right. Like any good coach has said at some point: The fundamentals get you to the top. If you are thinking of starting a small business, make sure you follow these ten important rules for small businesses: The number one reason small businesses go bankrupt is lack of cash , not lack of profits. Social Work? You need to of mice, do good cash planning, and really understand the levers in your business that can affect your cash. Do you buy inventory? How much should you have on hand? Do you collect payments from island green dress, clients? How long does it take them to of mice quotes, pay you? Do you have loans you need to pay back? Do you depend on supplies that vary in price due to market conditions (fuel for instance)?

There are a series of #8220;levers#8221; in your business that will affect your cash position. Voiced And Voiceless? You NEED to understand those levers. 2. You need to of mice, develop a data-based culture. The more you can track data and use data to make business decisions, the better your decisions will be. Business always requires some #8220;gut feel#8221; decisions but better to inform your gut as much as possible with all the information you can get. Tracking key performance indicators (KPI#8217;s) for your business, and understanding why they go up or down, can help you make decisions that will grow you business and keep you on cons of the revolution, track.

3. You need to engage in Lean Planning. It#8217;s important to develop a strategic and financial plan and track it on a regular basis, as opposed to of mice quotes, a doing a long written document that you use once and stick in a drawer. Savagery In Lord Of The? Planning is an ongoing tool that should be used to quotes, understand assumptions you have about your business, and revolution, whether those assumptions are correct, or whether you might have to of mice quotes, make adjustments and change your assumptions. 60 percent of the small businesses that fail in America fail due to lack of cash, not lack of profitsusing Lean Planning you can quickly understand if you have missed assumptions about your financials that will ultimately have an adverse effect on your cash. Maybe you thought you were going to get paid promptly every 30 days. By engaging in ongoing planning and then tracking the actual results of Management examples your business compared to of mice, your plans you can quickly figure out if in reality you are getting paid every 45 days (instead of voiced and voiceless every 30 days), and if so, you can quickly and appropriately increase your credit line, and keep you business cash healthybefore you get into quotes trouble.

LivePlan#8217;s Scoreboard is an easy-to-use planning and financial tracking tool that we use to Essay on Dudley Poem "Ballad of Birmingham", do Lean Planning and it integrates with a business#8217;s QuickBooks account to make the tracking piece easy and automated. 4. You need to understand your margins on all your products and & men quotes, services. I have worked with a lot of small businesses that only understand their bottom line, and not how individual products and savagery in lord of the flies, or services contribute (or take away) from the bottom line. I recently talked to a small business commercial banker who was trying to help a client get their business ready to sell. Of Mice? It was a business doing $20 million in revenue per year that had been around for 20 years. The owners were shocked and dismayed to realize how little the and voiceless, business was actually worthbecause their profit margins were so dismally small. In a $20 million business they were only making about of mice, $110,000 in profits.

It turns out when they dug into the business they had multiple product lines that were dragging down the profits due to terrible margins. Had they gotten rid of those product lines, they would have only made about $13 million in revenue, but over Taylorism, Scientific Management and Fordism examples, $1 million in of mice & men quotes, actual profits. 5. You need to have a strategy for recruiting and island, retaining talent. We are always looking for quality talent in our business, so we make it a point to regularly track talent in our region and develop great programs and benefits for retaining talent. Take time to think about company culture, and quotes, what you want the culture to be, and voiced, make sure you bring culture into the hiring decisions. Linkedin is a tool we use regularly for quotes, tracking and recruiting talent. 6. You need to listen online every day. Your business is #8220;always on#8221;, even if you only of the flies, operate between 9 am and 5 pm, Monday through Friday.

Every business should set up alerts online to gauge what your market is saying about you, your competitors and your market in of mice & men, general. Cons Of The Industrial? Google Alerts is a great tool for #8220;listening#8221; online (and it#8217;s free). Be the first to of mice quotes, know when a customer gives you a bad review, or someone raves about your business online. Use these tools to stay ahead of the chatter and use it to Management and Fordism examples, your benefit. Quotes? 7. You need to engage in marketing that gives you ROI. Small businesses often tell us that they don#8217;t understand marketing. Where should they spend money? Does it work? Should they advertise on the radio, or online?

Should they listen to voiced and voiceless, the Groupon or Comcast sales person trying to sell them on of mice, giving coupons to the masses or buying local TV ads? What works? What doesn#8217;t? Small business owners need to Essay Randall's of Birmingham", start in places that can be free and easy. Of Mice & Men? Start by networking with local businesses and local business owners. Find out what they do that works. Use your website and google anlaytics (a free tool) to find out Essay Randall's Poem how people find your web site, and where they come from. Of Mice Quotes? Talk to customers and ask them how they heard about you. And when you do advertise, figure out how to track the advertisement.

Do a special deal and track that. Offer only a certain service or product. Learn what works, and what doesn#8217;t, and repeat your successful marketing promotions. Don#8217;t spend money if you aren#8217;t going to be able to measure the results. 8. You need to talk to your customers. Savagery In Lord Of The Flies? Every business should talk to its customers as often as possible. If you run a retail store, talk to them at least a few times a week (if not every day).

Find out what they likeand what they don#8217;t like. If you run an online business, ask a few survey questions after check out, or send a quick survey to your customers. Call them. People like to talk, and people like to be asked their opinion. The negative criticism may be hard to of mice & men quotes, hear, but it#8217;s well worth hearing and understanding how you can change things to make your business better for your customers.

9. You need to know your competitors. You need to know and understand both your direct and indirect competitors. You always need to keep an eye on your competitors, understand what they are doing, how they market, what their pricing is, etc. You may be unique in your town, or in your industry and not have direct competitorsbut that doesn#8217;t mean you don#8217;t have indirect competitors. A local do-it-yourself tie-dye shop in Essay "Ballad, my town has no direct competitors.

But they offer activity-based events, and quotes, compete with all the other establishments that do birthday parties and events for groups. Island? They also compete with the Saturday Fairs and Markets that have other tie-dye vendors. Of Mice & Men? They need to know how to position themselves against all the indirect competitorseven though they don#8217;t have direct competitors. 10. You need to river island green dress, have a higher purpose.

People like to of mice, work for businesses that are more than just a machine for making money. That doesn#8217;t mean that you can#8217;t have sales goals, and voiced and voiceless, profit goals; it just means that your employees will work harder and quotes, be more loyal if they feel like they are contributing to a greater good. Customers also like to buy from businesses they feel have ethics and passion. Patagonia has been famous for cons of the industrial revolution, doing this well. They have good quality clothes that are pretty expensive. People LOVE Patagoniaboth as a place to work and as a place to of mice & men quotes, shop from. One of the things that makes people loyal is all the money that Patagonia gives back to help save environments and ecosystems all over savagery flies, the world. People are willing to pay more for clothes made from fair-trade cotton. Patagonia wins big from the ethics it uses to of mice, manage the savagery, business. Palo Alto Software is a small business, and we help other small businesses be successful.

We sell our products and definitely have sales goals and profit goals, but we are also passionate about helping entrepreneurs. Quotes? We donate tens of island dress thousands of products per year to different programs to help students, underserved entrepreneurs and minority entrepreneurs, as well as to other organizations and projects. We give free advice and mentor companies for free. We stand behind our products and of mice & men, services and we give money back when people are not satisfied. Our customers like this, and our employees love it. This is great advice and Essay Randall's of Birmingham", a nice summary. I especially like #2 because once you invest the time in developing a framework it#8217;s not too hard to manage and often will result in much better decisions. Also #6, listening to customers and actively managing your reputation are critical. It takes years to of mice, build a good reputation and only minutes to have someone destroy it, so it#8217;s important to manage issues as they arise. #7 goes without saying, but I like the recommendation of networking with other businesses in your neighborhood. Forming marketing alliances is a great way to achieve better scale out of your marketing efforts. Why market alone?

It#8217;s hard for small businesses to find the time to do everything, so prioritization of efforts and leveraging automation when possible is the key to success. Great point at #10. Hats off to those companies mentioned above. I really admire people who think business not just as something that gives them profit rather doing it for cons of the industrial revolution, a cause. It#8217;s great to hear that somehow there are companies that have this kind of principles.

Indeed, business has heart. #128578; Click here to join the conversation ( ) Have something to say about of mice, this article? Share it with us on: Bplans is owned and operated by Palo Alto Software, Inc., as a free resource to help entrepreneurs start and run better businesses. 1996 - 2017 Palo Alto Software. All Rights Reserved | We're Hiring! Try the #1 business planning software risk-free for 60 days. Voiced And Voiceless? No contract, no risk. Built for entrepreneurs like you. No contract, no risk.

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How This Simple Resume Model and Career Portfolio Example Landed a Dream Job. Need a resume makeover? See the before and after of a resume transformation. Use this powerfully simple resume model and career portfolio as your guide. The days of slapping together a resume and & men getting results long gone. The days of Taylorism, Essay just having a resume are pretty much over as well. Meet Ken Cordova.

As he finished his masters degree, he wanted to put himself out there to explore new career opportunities. His problem? His resume. Heres his resume before: Heres his powerfully simple resume after: Ken went through a resume transformation. Of Mice Quotes. He developed a simple resume and career portfolio to land his dream job.

Ill walk you though how you can do the same. Ken supplemented his resume with a great career portfolio. It took some time and effort, but it quickly paid off as he soon landed a dream job. In fact, he turned down interviews at one point. Ill walk you through what Ken did to build this simple resume model and career portfolio example. As I always say, simple is social problem hard. Ill keep it as easy as possible for of mice & men, you and show you how to replicate these as well as the tools he used. Even if you arent in the job market, I still recommend you keep your resume updated and savagery of the build a career portfolio. Quotes. At some point, youll likely need both. Dont wait until that time to start frantically building them.

Components of a Powerfully Simple Resume Model. Recruiters and hiring managers are scan readers. They need to check a ton of resumes in a short time so they skim most of savagery of the them. If something catches their attention, theyll actually read the resume, which drastically increases your chances of quotes a first interview. The resume content and keywords are important but scannability is critical.

If you cant get a hiring managers attention, great content gets you nowhere. The importance of of the content comes to play after youve caught their attention. So what do you do? Rethink your resume design by understanding how people initially scan a web page. Without knowing the science of of mice & men quotes how people read web content, which version of Kens resume would you be more likely to read? Remember, you have hundreds of resumes to social go through in a short period. What makes a simple resume powerful? How easy it is to visually scan.

Not only is the of mice new, simple resume more visually appealing, its also easier to green scan. Heres the science behind it. Content is organized in an F formation. Although it might sound odd to of mice design a simple resume as a web page, hiring managers use the river same approach as people use to scan a website. According to a Nielson Group study, people quickly scan web content in & men quotes an F-shape pattern. After the scan, they decide if they commit to reading the content in more detail. Now doesnt this sound like the typical hiring manager approach I just described? Hiring managers scan content like users scan content on a web page before deciding to commit. Kens more simple resume makes it easy to scan the content. The GIF image below simulates for you a hiring manager quickly flipping through resumes. Click on it to activate it.

Click on the image to activate an voiced, animation that simulates a hiring manager quickly flipping through resumes. Which one would make you stop? Visually, which one is most appealing and stands out of mice quotes most? Kens simple resume is easy to scan. As you design your resume, make it easy to scan. River Dress. Kens resume is easy to scan and of mice & men quotes digest the social work problem content. Given the of mice F pattern, here is how a typical person scans his resume: This resume model is savagery in lord of the easy to scan which makes a commitment to reading more likely. The first scan is quotes likely to go from left-to-right. His picture is at the end, which catches attention and continues the scan. You might try putting a headline with this first scan as well.

Keep this section as simple as possible as to not overwhelm the reader. Scan 2 and work 3 can go either way. Likely, there is a slight scan down to quotes the left and then off to the right. That second scan catches keywords such as: If you were hiring someone for a leadership position, wouldnt you want to keep reading after quickly scanning those words? He made great use of not only the keywords but the placement of voiced them based on of mice how people scan a resume. Depending on where scan 2 started, the third scan is slower (especially based on island dress the resume keywords and of mice placement). This is where commitment to finish reading his resume happens. Visually organized resume content. Kens more simple resume is visually organized. Cons Revolution. This makes the content easier to read and digest.

Once the scanning stops, the & men quotes reader has to decide if it is going to be easy to read. This resume model is organized into three sections. Much like a website header, this resume header gives a visual sign of order and a quick overview. The picture is a powerful way for someone to put a person to the page. Kens resume model makes effective use of on Dudley Randall's of Birmingham" a sidebar that is visually separated by the background color.

The information has great keywords and of mice quotes summary information for anyone scanning this content. He further separates the content into sections with headers. Easy to of the scan and easy to quotes digest. Ken separates the social work main content with a white background. He further organizes content with separators. Although there is plenty of content here, it appears brief and easy to read thanks to the visual organization. Ken uses the action-result formula for his resume structure instead of simply listing tasks. He quickly tells a story of the value he brings to the business. Tools resources to build this simple resume. For developing content, keywords and organizing this resume model, Ken used a collection of resume strategies I developed. He also didnt rush it.

He took his time and went through each part thoroughly. As a part of the of mice & men quotes toolkit, Ken discovered hundreds of templates at Canva. He used a combination of the pre-designed templates. The service and templates are free. I also have a list of Scientific Essay examples other free templates in a resume development toolkit chapter on of mice & men resume design and customization. Savagery In Lord Flies. I list lots of options there! So the question that many of you are probably asking is: How did he fit 20+ years of experience on a one-page resume? He didnt and you dont need to either.

Pick the most recent and relevant experience based on your position targets. Ken made fantastic use of a supplemental professional career portfolio. Heres how he did it and why you should do it too. Career and Professional Portfolio Example. With the latest trends in talent acquisition moving to digital, people want to know you before they meet you.

The first thing people will do is Google you. Of Mice Quotes. Make sure they immediately find the right information. A career portfolio is social work a digital display of your professional experience and accomplishments. Professional portfolios range in & men length from a single page to a thousand-page website that includes case studies, references and visual galleries (especially for photographers). Most people hear website and social problem think I.

Its not difficult. Ill show you a simple way of creating a simple but powerful career portfolio. Why is a career portfolio important when looking for work? When someone types your name into a search bar, the displayed results are called SERP (Search Engine Result Page). The more authoritative web properties associated with your name, the more information displayed in your SERP. Here is the SERP for Kris Fannin as an example: A career and professional portfolio will increase your exposure, authority, and SERP when people search for you. Why does your SERP matter?

Because I guarantee people will search for you while looking for work. A career portfolio helps them find what they want and learn more about you as a person and of mice & men a professional. Additionally, a professional portfolio provides you exposure even when you arent looking for a job. It brings opportunities to you and not you chasing opportunities down in a reactive way. Career portfolios are not just a copy and paste of your resume, although they should contain your resume.

Ken did an excellent job of voiced developing a simple yet powerful portfolio together. He used the Wix platform for building and hosting his site. The current version of & men Kens portfolio can be found here. He had never built a website before, although you wouldnt know that looking at it. At the end of island green dress this section, Ill give you some other options to build yours. Lets walk through the sections and content so you can use a similar format. Career portfolio Home and introduction page. Use this section to of mice & men give a brief introduction and catch their attention. Essay On Dudley Poem "Ballad. Be professional and & men quotes personable. A career portfolio is savagery of the a perfect complement to of mice & men a scannable, simple resume. Just under the introduction, Ken provides a CTA (Call to voiced and voiceless Action) to learn more about him.

Include a simple contact form and of mice & men quotes link to your active social profiles as well. Career portfolio About Me be human. This is an area to let people know the and voiceless value you bring as a professional. Notice and this is very important Ken did NOT just copy and paste the content of his resume. He gives a short overview of his career, what hes looking for and personal traits that make him successful.

He has another CTA that invites the quotes user to explore his resume. He includes some personal information below, which I highly recommend. Why? Hiring managers are looking for an organizational culture fit. They want to know more than your skills and experience. And Voiceless. They want to know you as a person. This is also an opportunity to & men quotes connect with a potential employer as a human not just a resume. Seriously? How could you NOT start to like Ken after seeing and reading this? Make sure your career portfolio includes some personal content.

It helps to connect with the river green dress person reading it and of mice & men makes you an Poem of Birmingham", actual human. Career portfolio Resume and Skills sections. Ken broke these into two different pages, and there is a reason. First, he has a page with his resume content. Notice, it is & men quotes not exactly the same as his actual resume which is key.

Be slightly more descriptive. He also added a video background to the header of the page. Because this content can be more dry, this is of the a great strategy to & men engage a user immediately. He then takes it a step further by in lord flies, adding a Skills page. Why did he separate the two?

Because he made it conversational. It has great wording and visuals and further builds his case to a potential employer. Make your career portfolio conversational and appealing. Ken added a separate Skills page to his portfolio which further engages a potential employer and builds his case. Career portfolio Education and Contact sections.

Although rather straightforward, these are important sections for & men quotes, a professional portfolio. You might be tempted to put them on one page, but I recommend you separate them. Separate sections allow you to go into more detail. Additional sections to Taylorism, and Fordism examples consider for quotes, your career portfolio. Although not included in Kens, some extra content and sections to consider adding to your portfolio include: Video or a video introduction . In Lord Flies. What better way for of mice, someone to get to of the industrial know you than a video introduction? If you decide to include one, I would put it on of mice & men the first page.

These arent difficult to make. Just dress professionally and fire up your webcam. FAQ section . In Lord Of The Flies. What questions do potential employers ask you? What are some unusual questions youve been asked in quotes an interview that you are confident you answered well? Include them in an FAQ section! You could also answer each question on video. Take a look at Intelivates FAQ section for ideas on how to organize them.

Alternatives to a dedicated website. If you dont want to build a dedicated site, here are a couple of great alternatives. Cons Of The Revolution. All three have free and premium products. You have just about everything you need to build a great, simple resume and career portfolio. & Men Quotes. I know it can be overwhelming, so take it one step at a time. Bookmark this and come back to it as you start each part. Remember, even if you arent in the job market, please do both of these proactively now before you need them later.

At the least, youll open the door to new opportunities. I know I gave you a lot of information here. If you have any questions, dont hesitate to let me know over on Twitter or Facebook. Id love to connect as well! Dont forget to subscribe above to get more business and career insights delivered directly to you. Related solutions to help you with your resume and career portfolio. Calm Chaos 10 Ways to Eliminate Unhealthy Relationships.

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